Chennai:
Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu are due next year and the key players, the ruling DMK and the main Opposition AIADMK, have started building their election planks. The DMK has stepped up its offensive against the Centre, playing up the delimitation issue and challenging the three-language push in the National Education Policy. The AIADMK, on the other hand, is cautiously identifying its poll partners to prevent another drubbing in the state polls.
Just two days after AIADMK leader E Palaniswami met Union Home Minister Amit Shah, sparking speculation about another AIADMK-BJP alliance, AIADMK today supported the Tamil Nadu Assembly resolution against the Waqf Amendment Bill, which the Opposition has challenged in Parliament. The four MLAs of the BJP walked out of the Assembly, saying that the Centre has the authority to bring the amendments to the Waqf law.
EPS’ Mixed Signals
During his visit to the national capital on Tuesday, Mr Palaniswami met Home Minister Amit Shah, sparking a buzz over a poll alliance between AIADMK and BJP, which have joined forces multiple times earlier. Speaking to the media, the AIADMK leader said any decision on alliance will be taken closer to the polls. “This is politics, as per the political situation, changes will happen. How can we tell now? When did we form an alliance at the time of the 2019 election? It was in February when we made the announcement. Similarly, we will talk to like-minded parties and take a decision on alliance when elections come near,” he said.
He then dropped a major hint, and said “no party except the DMK is an opponent”, suggesting that the option of joining hands with the BJP is on the table. Another remark, however, indicated that while AIADMK may join forces with the BJP, it will only do so on its terms.
Mr Palaniswami said AIADMK’s stand on a two-language formula for Tamil Nadu students remains unchanged. “Two-language (formula) has been the AIADMK’s policy from the time of CN Annadurai, MGR and Amma (J Jayalalithaa). It should continue in Tamil Nadu,” he said, underlining AIADMK’s stand on an issue that has sparked a face-off between the DMK government and the Centre.
AIADMK-BJP: A Tale Of Reunions and Break-Ups
The AIADMK and BJP have a long history of electoral partnerships, chequered with several break-ups and patch-ups. In the 1998 general election, the J Jayalalithaa-led party tied up with the BJP, scoring 30 out of 39 seats in the state. The next year, however, AIADMK withdrew its support to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, ostensibly after Mr Vajpayee refused to dismiss the DMK government in Tamil Nadu. A patch-up happened in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, but while AIADMK won just one seat, the BJP scored a blank. At the Centre, the election marked an end to the NDA rule and the UPA returned to power. In the post-Jayalalithaa era, AIADMK tied up with the BJP in the 2021 state polls. The coalition managed to win just 75 seats, which DMK stormed to power with a score of 159. This alliance fell through in 2023 as state BJP chief K Annamalai pushed hard to build a support base for the party and the AIADMK was not amused.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, AIADMK and the BJP contested separately and failed to open their accounts. The DMK again swept all 39 seats.
The AIADMK Dilemma
The E Palaniswami-led party has struggled to perform electorally since J Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, partly due to infighting and lack of strong political messaging. Several key players in the state’s politics are firmly with the DMK, forcing the AIADMK to look for partners. One such partner is the BJP, but in a state with a history of Dravidian politics, the BJP is largely viewed as a ‘North Indian party’ and an alliance opens up AIADMK to the DMK’s attacks in this line.
At the same time, the AIADMK knows that an association with the BJP has rarely benefited it electorally. With the delimitation row and the third language issue raging, an association with the BJP may prove counter-productive for the main Opposition. At the same time, the AIADMK will be mindful to prevent a division in the Opposition’s votes to take on the DMK better. The BJP has improved its marginal presence in the state and hopes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity may better its poll show.
Also, the BJP has accused the DMK government of corruption in the state-controlled liquor trade after the Enforcement Directorate started probing the case. Against this backdrop, many feel AIADMK may try to cozy up to the BJP to stay out of the line of fire.
But an alliance between AIADMK and BJP will be possible only if the two parties manage to navigate the complex web of local issues and national narratives and find a common ground.