Responders gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 13, 2025. Israel hit about 100 targets in Iran on June 13, including nuclear facilities and military command centres and killing senior figures including the armed forces chief and top nuclear scientists.
| Photo Credit: AFP
Israel has been preparing for this for years. It opposed the 2015 nuclear deal. It carried out several clandestine attacks inside Iran, including the 2020 assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of Iranian nuclear programme. It took the war directly to Iran in April 2014, by bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All while, Israel argued that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes were “an existential threat” to itself. And on June 13, Israel carried out a massive attack in Iran, targeting the country’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, the residences of its top Generals and more than two dozen nuclear scientists. The Israeli attack, which lasted for hours, is the heaviest military blow to the Islamic Republic since the revolution.
While Israel has long wanted to carry out a direct attack in Iran, both international pressure and Iran’s regional deterrence stopped it from doing so. Past American Presidents, who supported Israel’s militarism against Hamas or Hezbollah, vetoed Israeli plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. But both the regional and international scenes are different now.
Rolling back the axis
After the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, Israel launched a mini regional war – against Hamas in Gaza, against Hezbollah in Lebanon and aimed at weakening the regime of Bashar al Assad in Syria. Hamas was forced to reinvent itself as an insurgency and Hezbollah’s militant infrastructure has been degraded. But the single development that altered the balance of power in West Asia was the fall of Assad in Syria in December 2024. Mr. Assad’s Syria was a critical link between Hezbollah and Tehran. With Assad gone and the militias weakened, the much feared axis of resistance, which has been Iran’s forward defence since the early 1980s, has been hollowed out. Ever since, Israel has dramatically stepped up plans to attack Iran.
In October 2024, following an Iranian ballistic missile attack, Israel carried out an hours-long operation inside Iran, reportedly taking out many Iranian missile defence systems. The strike left Iran’s nuclear facilities vulnerable for future attacks. So if Israel’s mini regional war weakened Iran’s deterrence, the October 2024 attack turned Tehran’s domestic defence more vulnerable. Israelis saw this as a historic opportunity. They wanted to act before Iran rebuilds its domestic and regional capabilities. All it wanted was a greenlight from Washington.
Trump’s entry
When Mr. Trump became President, he offered talks to the Iranians. There were reports in American media, which Mr. Trump himself confirmed later, that he “waved off” an Israeli plan to attack Iran in May because he wanted “to give diplomacy a chance”. But Mr. Trump’s plan was to put Iran in a box and force it to sign up on a deal that Washington proposed. The U.S. and Israel want Iran to give up its entire nuclear programme. The Iranians were ready to roll back the programme, like they did in 2015, but not to give it up. Mr. Trump said last week that he was “less confident” of reaching an agreement with Iran. He also said, on Thursday, he didn’t want a war but strikes against Iran “might happen”.
After the Israeli strike, the U.S. said it was not part of the attack. But it is unlikely that Israel would carry out such an attack without a greenlight from Washington.
Tough choices
A strategy seemed to have emerged from Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post on Friday evening. Mr. Trump said he gave Iran “chance after chance” to make a deal. He said the next round of attacks are “already planned” and urged the Iranians to make a deal quickly, “before there is nothing left”. Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, says he is still ready to meet the Iranians in Muscat on Sunday. The U.S. and Israel appear to be in sync here. Israel attacked Natanz, leaving out Fordow and Isfahan for now. Mr. Trump says the only way to prevent further attacks is for Iran to take his deal. Mr. Trump is using Israel’s attacks as an added layer of pressure on Iran. Israel, on the other hand, is getting what it wants – militarily roll back the Iranian nuclear programme.
Iran is in a difficult position. If it walks away from the talks and launches more attacks on Israel, there would be further Israeli strikes, plunging Iran and the region into an uncertain terrain. If Tehran accepts the U.S. deal under duress and agrees to shut down all nuclear plants, that would be a humiliating surrender which could come with political costs. The third option before Iran is to escalate the war dramatically to make the U.S. feel the pain. But such an outcome could drag the U.S. directly into the war.
Published – June 13, 2025 06:22 pm IST