Donald Trump’s decision to sharply curtail a deadline for Vladimir Putin to halt his war in Ukraine is being met by silence in the Kremlin so far, though analysts say it won’t pressure the Russian president into changing course.
The US president threatened Monday to impose sanctions within 10-12 days on countries buying Russian exports including energy unless Putin accepts a ceasefire, instead of the 50 days he announced earlier this month. “There’s no reason to wait. If you know what the answer is,” Trump said, voicing frustration at Putin’s repeated rejection of his calls for a truce.
“Russia will respond very diplomatically” and point out that “setting specific deadlines does not, by itself, encourage the negotiation process,” Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political consultant close to the Kremlin, said on Telegram. “But Russia’s actual response to Trump’s ultimatum will be the same as it has been to all ultimatums for the past 500 years: Get lost! Go to hell!”
While maintaining relations with Trump is important for Putin, the Russian leader “has no desire to stop, and even more so under pressure,” said Moscow-based political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who’s now deputy chairman of the county’s security council, said Trump was “playing the ultimatum game” and warned it was “a step towards war” between Russia and the US.
Markets responded more nervously. The ruble continued to weaken on Tuesday, passing 82 per dollar in early trading, after it declined by nearly 3% in the wake of Trump’s remarks to the lowest since mid-May.
Oil prices climbed, amid concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supplies or increased costs from rerouted flows. The Brent benchmark was trading near $70 a barrel after closing 2.3% higher in the previous session, the biggest increase in two weeks.
Russia is a top-three global oil producer after the US and Saudi Arabia, exporting more than 3 million barrels a day by sea alone, and supplies crude to such major consumers as India and China. Any significant disruptions in Russian flows in the near future would require a ramp-up in supplies from other major producers and rerouting of existing barrels, just as the global market remains tight amid robust summer demand.
Trump returned to the White House in January after campaigning on a pledge to bring a swift end to the war that’s now in its fourth year.
His frustration mounted, however, after six publicly announced phone calls with Putin produced no progress on a ceasefire. Russia also intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, adding to US perceptions that Putin was intent on continuing the war.
Trump said Monday that “I’m not so interested in talking any more” to Putin. “We have such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversations, and then people die the following night,” he told reporters during a visit to Scotland.
Still, Russian media reflected skepticism in Moscow that Trump will follow through on his threat to impose sanctions after he repeatedly put off decisions on acting against Putin.
Russian officials viewed the original 50-day deadline as another postponement that allowed Moscow’s forces a window to intensify fighting on the battlefield and seize more territory in Ukraine at the height of the summer fighting season.
“For some reason, Trump believes that’s he’s an arbitrator and can issue ultimatums,” senior Russian lawmaker Vladimir Dzhabarov told the Izvestia newspaper. “But ultimatums are usually issued to the losing side, which Russia isn’t.”
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